Analytics
Resolved No on 12 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 43.5% on 25 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 30 daily closes on record from 25 Mar 2026 to 12 May 2026 (19 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 43.5% on 25 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 13% on 26 Mar 2026. $244.06K traded over the market's life.
77 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 12, 4:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 30 points, 25 Mar 2026 – 12 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Mar 2026 | 43.5% |
| 12 May 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 27.2K |
| Thin-Membrane | Yes | 2.43K |
| deasfad | Yes | 2.38K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-april
| Yes |
| 1.85K |
| Novus0rdoSeclorum | Yes | 1.17K |
| itsjustcheddar | Yes | 1.17K |
| S888 | Yes | 891.84 |
| Edxx8 | Yes | 649 |
| anciente | Yes | 290 |
| 4lex385 | Yes | 265 |
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