Analytics
Yes is at 99.1%, up 84 points from 15% when the market opened on 1 Oct 2026.
Across the 19 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 98.8% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 15% on 1 Oct 2026. The current quote, 99.1%, is above every close in that window; the latest close was 98.8% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 76.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 68.5% on 11 Oct 2026.
5+ is the favourite of the 6 outcomes in “# of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026?”, ahead of 4 at 0.8%.
$13.55K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $2.77K, with a 1.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 312 trades, $4.55K bought Yes and $1.11K bought No; the largest was a $1.61K buy of Yes at 70.5¢.
The largest Yes position is Conscious-Belligerency with 2.3K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 2.2K. Ten wallets hold 85.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 7:40 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 1 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 15.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 98.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Conscious-Belligerency | Yes | 2.28K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.18K |
| gambler925 | Yes | 560.84 |
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/of-chatgpt-outage-days-in-october-2026
| johnsalchichon | Yes | 472.48 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 242.55 |
| 09F911029D74 | No | 200 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 192.23 |
| donthackme | No | 176.83 |
| youtube-trader | No | 170.01 |
| Weak-Embellishment | No | 160.52 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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