Analytics
Resolved No on 9 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 5% on 1 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 40 daily closes on record from 1 Aug 2026 to 9 Sep 2026, the highest close was 13.5% on 12 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 7 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6 points up, to 13.5% on 12 Aug 2026. $6.62K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 9, 6:20 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 40 points, 1 Aug 2026 – 9 Sep 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2026 | 5.0% |
| 9 Sep 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 4.57K |
| groth | Yes | 935 |
| posge | Yes | 60.64 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-bab-el-mandeb-strait-end-of-august-1785517679415
| Yes |
| 56.1 |
| Violet Meteor 1B7C | Yes | 45 |
| Swift Meteor 30F2 | Yes | 25.2 |
| kirani_liao | Yes | 23.86 |
| Bright Meteor 8922 | Yes | 8.25 |
| 74744886D1081ab236510E04c5b617b914A3Cef7. | Yes | 4.89 |
| Rapid Quasar 51BA | Yes | 4.8 |
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