Will the US Trade Deficit be between $60 billion and $70 billion in June 2026?

economyResolved

No, settled Aug 4, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.0K

Resolved

Settled

Aug 4, 2026 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 4 Aug 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 94%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 30 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 30 Jul 2026 to 4 Aug 2026, the highest close was 49.5% on 30 Jul 2026 and the lowest 6% on 4 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 17.5% on 31 Jul 2026. $1.02K traded over the market's life.

16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:04 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 30 Jul 2026 – 4 Aug 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
30 Jul 2026	49.5%
4 Aug 2026	6.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	1.31K
Perfect-Neighbourhood	Yes	375.7
firegold	Yes	134.26
RustyScissors	Yes	74.62

10 of 16 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.