Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 11% on 23 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 194 daily closes on record from 23 Jun 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 11% on 23 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. $1.73M traded over the market's life.
175 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 194 points, 23 Jun 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Jun 2025 | 11.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| popelfresser | Yes | 30.95K |
| Hadi1 | Yes | 13.79K |
| Carry1 | Yes | 12.2K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between June 21 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-in-2025
| 589985 | Yes | 5.12K |
| Happy-Go-Lucky-Caliber | Yes | 4.79K |
| S111111 | Yes | 3.12K |
| tacowaco | Yes | 2.14K |
| Tinted-Screwdriver | Yes | 1.89K |
| Anguished-Gran | Yes | 1.6K |
| Fatmach89 | Yes | 1.45K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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