Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 1.4% on 19 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 19 Jun 2025 to 1 Jul 2025, the highest close was 4.1% on 23 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jul 2025. $1.04M traded over the market's life.
82 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 8:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 19 Jun 2025 – 1 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Jun 2025 | 1.4% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| backflip | Yes | 33.97K |
| Henri03 | Yes | 5.92K |
| Tueioeiezeueue | Yes | 5.1K |
| Frb98mf | Yes | 4.55K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran between June 18 and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of June 18, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-july
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Ceebee | Yes | 4.05K |
| cryptolooser | Yes | 3.31K |
| Ivoivo | Yes | 2K |
| BabyYoda12 | Yes | 1.85K |
| Orelwizman | Yes | 1.72K |
| blackswanscenarios | Yes | 1.57K |
