Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 9.5% on 1 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 367 daily closes on record from 1 Jan 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 14% on 18 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. $8.39M traded over the market's life.
820 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 367 points, 1 Jan 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2025 | 9.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 0xPolymarketAnon | Yes | 128.14K |
| Calculating-Satin | Yes | 76.35K |
| alejlopez | Yes | 60.16K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-in-2025
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| River5 | Yes | 51.33K |
| bubbless | Yes | 42.12K |
| cf42 | Yes | 33.13K |
| pmnewbie | Yes | 31.18K |
| shortingtrump | Yes | 27.57K |
| Alienstomoon | Yes | 24.48K |
| E33IE | Yes | 23.34K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
