Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.7%. Yes opened at 10.5% on 12 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 12 Jul 2026 to 1 Aug 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 28% on 13 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.8% on 30 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 24.5% on 19 Jul 2026. $14.46K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 12 Jul 2026 – 1 Aug 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2026 | 10.5% |
| 1 Aug 2026 | 2.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| dropmeplease | Yes | 86.9 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| silverstud | Yes | 35 |
On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/) This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify. Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action. Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
| PPMT | Yes | 30 |
| Scaly-Arena | Yes | 25 |
| Ivory Quasar 70A8 | Yes | 14 |
| Rapid Quasar 51BA | Yes | 11 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
| Pol7StrategyBuilder | No | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-lifts-caatsa-sanctions-on-turkey-byptptpt-20260708213004784
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