Analytics
Yes is at 7.5%, down 42 points from 49.5% when the market opened on 12 Jul 2026.
Across the 106 daily closes on record from 12 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49.5% on 12 Jul 2026 and the lowest 5% on 3 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 24%; a month before, 12.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 27% on 15 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by...?”.
$56.18 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $19.52K since listing. The order book holds $182.13, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 181 trades, $133.82 bought Yes and $11.05K bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 370 shares; the largest No position is rsg42 with 125. Ten wallets hold 83.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:07 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 106 points, 12 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2026 | 49.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 7.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 370.41 |
| rsg42 | No | 125 |
| Primary-Productivity | No | 111.11 |
On December 14, 2020, the United States imposed CAATSA sanctions on Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) in response to Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system (see: https://2017-2021.state.gov/the-united-states-sanctions-turkey-under-caatsa-231/). On July 7, 2026 U.S. President Donald Trump indicated his intent to lift sanctions off Turkey(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-will-lift-turkey-sanctions-decide-selling-f-35s-2026-07-07/) This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, termination, revocation, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting CAATSA sanctions on Turkey, Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), or covered Turkish officials by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, terminate, or suspend US penalties imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials under CAATSA Section 231, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either entity-level sanctions or individual sanctions will qualify. The full removal of any CAATSA sanction imposed on Turkey, SSB, or covered Turkish officials will also qualify. Actions affecting only separate legal restrictions, including restrictions on F-35 transfers to Turkey under the National Defense Authorization Act, will not qualify unless they also include a qualifying CAATSA sanctions-relief action. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without issuance of a qualifying sanctions-relief action. Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
| Inchoroi |
| No |
| 80 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 63.54 |
| xMAI | No | 60 |
| anticipator | No | 56.18 |
| bakayo33 - 9934 | No | 50 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 39.79 |
| yetiyetiyeti | No | 37.95 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-lifts-caatsa-sanctions-on-turkey-byptptpt-20260708213004784
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