Analytics
Yes is at 13.5%, about where the market opened on 24 Sep 2026.
Across the 33 daily closes on record from 24 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 17% on 19 Oct 2026 and the lowest 5% on 26 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 14%; a month before, 9.5%. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points down, to 5% on 26 Sep 2026.
It is one of 15 markets under “What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2027?”.
$2.38K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.78K, with a 7.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 78 trades, $108.56 bought Yes and $653.56 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 291 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 632.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:45 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 33 points, 24 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026 | 13.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 13.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 631.54 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 290.94 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 101 |
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2027 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 7-8, 2027. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2027
3 more markets, none above 3.1%.
| 2B9S | Yes | 100 |
| burge146 | Yes | 84.93 |
| cigarettes | No | 60 |
| SmartBoyBilly | Yes | 50 |
| cloverpmq2 | Yes | 27.8 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 18 |
| Fihdrzgdd | Yes | 14 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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