Will the unemployment rate for February be exactly 4.2%?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 7, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$18.1K

Resolved

Settled

Mar 7, 2025 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 7 Mar 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 80.4%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 9 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 27 daily closes on record from 9 Feb 2025 to 7 Mar 2025, the highest close was 49.5% on 9 Feb 2025 and the lowest 8.5% on 13 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 10.5% on 10 Feb 2025. $18.12K traded over the market's life.

9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 1:55 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 9 Feb 2025 – 7 Mar 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
9 Feb 2025	49.5%
7 Mar 2025	19.6%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	3.89K
KimbalMusk	Yes	120
limitlessinvestor	Yes	15.79

9 of 9 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for February 2025. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question. The next data release is scheduled for March 7, 2025, 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.