Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 27.5% on 12 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 144 daily closes on record from 12 Aug 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 27.5% on 12 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 25 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 5% on 13 Aug 2025. $148.43K traded over the market's life.
77 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 12:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 144 points, 12 Aug 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2025 | 27.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Gamblingpotato | Yes | 839.08 |
| mystupidchudlife | Yes | 568.72 |
| jontra | Yes | 400 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Supreme Court issues a majority opinion that (1) expressly overrules Obergefell v. Hodges (2015) or (2) holds the Constitution does not guarantee a right to same-sex marriage by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” Narrowings or limitations short of (1) or (2) do not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-supreme-court-overturn-gay-marriage-in2025
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 313 |
| kamarat | Yes | 299.98 |
| BskQpiQSJZ | Yes | 268 |
| PwpnRXZCVY | Yes | 267 |
| FEFDHsxxuH | Yes | 265 |
| uxrVTIArQK | Yes | 255 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 254 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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