Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?

economyResolved

No, settled Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.6K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 2, 2026 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 2 Oct 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 5 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 28 daily closes on record from 5 Sep 2026 to 2 Oct 2026, the highest close was 5.5% on 5 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 18 Sep 2026. $1.57K traded over the market's life.

16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 3, 8:29 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 28 points, 5 Sep 2026 – 2 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	1.93K
erFiodena	Yes	250
e46m3	Yes	80
a5533	Yes	44.36

10 of 16 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.