
Yes is at 2.3%, down 8.2 points from 10.5% when the market opened on 10 Sep 2026.
The high was 10.5% on 10 Sep 2026 and the low 0.4% on 16 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 2.6%; a month ago, 0.6%. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points down, to 4% on 11 Sep 2026.
Riemann Hypothesis ranks sixth of the 6 outcomes in “Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?”. No solution by Dec 31, 2027 leads at 34.5%; Hodge Conjecture is at 30.5%.
$288.62 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $23.64K since listing. The order book holds $6.98K, with a 0.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 342 trades, $194.68 bought Yes and $12.07K bought No; the largest was a $2.99K buy of No at 84.5¢.
The largest Yes position is PaddyAlpha with 1.8K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 12.1K. Ten wallets hold 80.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 19, 2:57 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 40 points, 10 Sep 2026 – 19 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2026 | 10.5% |
| 19 Oct 2026 | 2.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 12.07K |
| PaddyAlpha | Yes | 1.77K |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 1.73K |
This market will resolve according to the first qualifying Millennium Prize Problem for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no eligible AI lab announces a solution to a qualifying problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No solution by Dec 31, 2027". If solutions to two or more qualifying problems are announced on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve to the problem whose name, as listed below, comes first in alphabetical order. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-millennium-prize-problem-will-ai-solve-next
| molodoyy | Yes | 1.45K |
| Watchful-Fund | No | 838.41 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 802.85 |
| donthackme | Yes | 725.4 |
| AJSV | Yes | 703.87 |
| Neon Atlas F332 | Yes | 602.94 |
| Shy-Note | Yes | 584.29 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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