Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between September 1 and September 14, 2026?

Resolved

No, settled Aug 29, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$27.8K

Resolved

Settled

Aug 29, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 29 Aug 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 70%. Yes opened at 12.5% on 12 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 12 Aug 2026 to 29 Aug 2026, the highest close was 47% on 21 Aug 2026 and the lowest 10.5% on 18 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 23 points up, to 35.5% on 14 Aug 2026. $27.84K traded over the market's life.

29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Aug 30, 5:11 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 12 Aug 2026 – 29 Aug 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
12 Aug 2026	12.5%
29 Aug 2026	30.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	7.25K
Ofek4643	Yes	204.51
PontiusPilate	Yes	200.31
Mithrandir.	Yes	200

10 of 29 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market. "Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period. The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.