Analytics
Resolved No on 8 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 50%. Yes opened at 41.5% on 9 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 80 daily closes on record from 9 Apr 2026 to 8 Jul 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 82.5% on 26 Apr 2026 and the lowest 11% on 6 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 57 points down, to 20% on 28 May 2026. $22.5K traded over the market's life.
52 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 9, 2:03 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 80 points, 9 Apr 2026 – 8 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2026 | 41.5% |
| 8 Jul 2026 | 50.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.93K |
| sanalid | Yes | 1.38K |
| Justlookingatthis | Yes | 1.07K |
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s July monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its July 7, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy] This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their July 7, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision-in-july
| Yes |
| 400 |
| firegold | Yes | 387.68 |
| izmel9197 | Yes | 171.49 |
| Violet Meteor 1B7C | Yes | 143 |
| joever4kumala | Yes | 128.53 |
| dazzamnz75 | Yes | 120.09 |
| RJP-Trading | Yes | 111.8 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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