Analytics
Yes is at 15%, about where the market opened on 24 Jul 2026.
Across the 94 daily closes on record from 24 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 20.5% on 8 Aug 2026 and the lowest 12.5% on 20 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 18.5%; a month before, 14.5%.
Republican ranks second of the 2 outcomes in “Arizona Secretary of State Election Winner”. Democrat leads at 84.5%.
$90.48 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.2K since listing. The order book holds $21.34K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 59 trades, $185.35 bought Yes and $463.48 bought No.
The largest Yes position is HornyBibi with 450 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 755. Ten wallets hold 96.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:35 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 94 points, 24 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 10%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 14.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 15.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 754.51 |
| HornyBibi | Yes | 450 |
| Dapsy | No | 255.9 |
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona Secretary of State election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/arizona-secretary-of-state-election-winner-20260722170356601
| SmartBoyBilly |
| Yes |
| 189.5 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 172.58 |
| macrosteaks | Yes | 64 |
| PPMT | Yes | 60 |
| cigarettes | Yes | 52.53 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 38.89 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 32.31 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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