Analytics
Yes is at 57.5%, up 1 point from 56.5% when the market opened on 29 Jan 2026.
Across the 249 daily closes on record from 29 Jan 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (26 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 85.5% on 12 Aug 2026 and the lowest 10.5% on 23 Apr 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 62.5%; a month before, 76.5%. Its largest one-day move was 43 points up, to 75% on 9 May 2026.
John McGuire (R) is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “VA-05 House Election Winner”, ahead of Tom Perriello (D) at 42.5%.
$10.34K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $149.06K since listing. The order book holds $92.45K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $23.29K bought Yes and $10.11K bought No; the largest was a $1.62K sell of Yes at 64.7¢.
The largest Yes position is anoin123 with 20.6K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 22.8K. Ten wallets hold 84.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:15 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 249 points, 29 Jan 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2026 | 56.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 57.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 22.8K |
| anoin123 | Yes | 20.59K |
| Chungvicular | No | 17.15K |
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/va-05-house-election-winner
| Gaditima |
| Yes |
| 15.09K |
| aenews2 | No | 7.29K |
| cigarettes | Yes | 4.69K |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | No | 1.8K |
| Emerald Pioneer B836 | No | 1.68K |
| deuxgaules | Yes | 1.63K |
| trulyalya1 | Yes | 1.55K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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