Analytics
Trading ended on 28 Oct 2026 with Yes at 4.9%; Polymarket has not settled it yet.
Across the 288 daily closes on record from 20 Dec 2025 to 30 Oct 2026 (28 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 39% on 20 Dec 2025 and the lowest 2.3% on 16 Jun 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.5%; a month before, 2.8%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points up, to 36% on 1 Jan 2026.
53 ranks seventh of the 11 outcomes in “Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?”. ≤47 leads at 43.5%; 48 is at 14.5%.
$398.56K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is sweetspea with 197.5K shares; the largest No position is BreakTheBank with 177.6K. Ten wallets hold 96.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Oct 30, 12:31 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 288 points, 20 Dec 2025 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Dec 2025 | 39.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 4.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| sweetspea | Yes | 197.49K |
| BreakTheBank | No | 177.55K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 124.38K |
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the United States Senate as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/republican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections-927
| tmoneeey | Yes | 51.73K |
| Semen-Demon | Yes | 16.46K |
| GGOGOGOG | Yes | 7.36K |
| HowBoutThemCowboys | Yes | 5.74K |
| Jubilant-Park | Yes | 5.73K |
| Seutervoinen | Yes | 4.58K |
| wing1234 | Yes | 3.35K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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