Analytics
Yes is at 12.9%, down 21 points from 33.5% when the market opened on 20 Dec 2025.
Across the 307 daily closes on record from 20 Dec 2025 to 30 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 33.5% on 20 Dec 2025 and the lowest 4.5% on 16 Apr 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 15.8%; a month before, 11.8%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 18% on 21 Dec 2025.
205-209 ranks third of the 10 outcomes in “Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?”. Below 190 leads at 39.5%; 200-204 is at 13%.
$666.22 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $52.3K since listing. The order book holds $68.63K, with a 0.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.34K bought Yes and $7.49K bought No; the largest was a $1.41K sell of No at 92.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Tuoppias with 2K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 8.7K. Ten wallets hold 78% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 307 points, 20 Dec 2025 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Dec 2025 | 33.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 12.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 8.69K |
| Tuoppias | Yes | 1.95K |
| Agyapro | Yes | 1.6K |
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/republican-house-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 831.55 |
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 784.98 |
| chickendinner69 | Yes | 701.83 |
| LittoLee | Yes | 577.74 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 535.19 |
| andy29 | No | 500 |
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 483.36 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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