Analytics
Yes is at 6.5%, down 8 points from 14.5% when the market opened on 19 Aug 2026.
Across the 70 daily closes on record from 19 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 17% on 13 Sep 2026 and the lowest 6% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 9%; a month before, 10.5%. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points down, to 7% on 22 Sep 2026.
Tie ranks third of the 3 outcomes in “Which party will hold more governorships after the midterms?”. Democratic Party leads at 78.5%; Republican Party is at 15%.
$214 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.5K since listing. The order book holds $19.09K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 75 trades, $58.42 bought Yes and $466.81 bought No.
The largest Yes position is maritime6307 with 181 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 350. Ten wallets hold 93.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:51 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 70 points, 19 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2026 | 14.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 6.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 349.89 |
| maritime6307 | Yes | 181 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 131.83 |
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party, between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, that holds the most US governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. If the Republican Party and the Democratic Party hold the same number of governor seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections, this market will resolve to “Tie”. This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. For governor seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the governor was elected. If a governor-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the individual was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current governor who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the governor was affiliated at the time of the election. If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-hold-more-governorships-after-the-midterms
| Prickly-Eyrie | No | 116.07 |
| algo168 | Yes | 100 |
| cigarettes | No | 99.9 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 80.46 |
| macrosteaks | No | 70 |
| tryrktry | Yes | 60 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 27 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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