Analytics
Resolved No on 6 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 59.5%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 1 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 1 Sep 2026 to 6 Oct 2026, the highest close was 73.5% on 3 Oct 2026 and the lowest 13% on 10 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 56% on 29 Sep 2026. $41.34K traded over the market's life.
58 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 6:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 1 Sep 2026 – 6 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Sep 2026 | 49.5% |
| 6 Oct 2026 | 40.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| etevans | Yes | 1.9K |
| dizel-041 | Yes | 1.65K |
| GuailanKia | Yes | 606 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-pq-win-a-majority-in-the-2026-quebec-general-election
| Yes |
| 540.7 |
| JAMJAMJAM4 | Yes | 519 |
| Devoted-Route | Yes | 470.93 |
| Loudi | Yes | 390 |
| conherence | Yes | 283.71 |
| VFALL | Yes | 223.18 |
| oliman2 | Yes | 215.16 |
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