Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 38.5% on 15 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 70 daily closes on record from 15 Jan 2026 to 29 Mar 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 38.5% on 15 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 29 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 31% on 22 Jan 2026. $15.34K traded over the market's life.
62 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 1, 11:39 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 70 points, 15 Jan 2026 – 29 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2026 | 38.5% |
| 29 Mar 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 5.89K |
| cassino | Yes | 716.2 |
| Fundraiser02 | Yes | 520.07 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter. Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/sp-500-performance-in-q1
| Yes |
| 300 |
| rgsh81 | Yes | 197.4 |
| Fastgo | Yes | 139.07 |
| ACara | Yes | 102.95 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| CJZlee | Yes | 91.79 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 84.73 |
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