Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 2.9% on 2 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 90 daily closes on record from 2 Jul 2026 to 30 Sep 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 3.7% on 7 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 27 Jul 2026. $6.24K traded over the market's life.
31 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 90 points, 2 Jul 2026 – 30 Sep 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2026 | 2.9% |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.67K |
| xiaoaojiang | Yes | 605 |
| Violet Meteor 1B7C | Yes | 560 |
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate. A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate. If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/peoples-bank-of-china-rate-change-by-september-30-20260630000252021
| Yes |
| 179.15 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 162.29 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 161.9 |
| Shy-Note | Yes | 130 |
| Crimson Summit 6D33 | Yes | 100 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| xjpmax | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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