Analytics
Yes is at 1.6%, down 26 points from 28% when the market opened on 18 Aug 2026.
Across the 72 daily closes on record from 18 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 28% on 18 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.6% on 20 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.5%; a month before, 2.1%. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 17.5% on 19 Aug 2026.
2.0–2.25 ranks third of the 5 outcomes in “What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?”. Over 2.5 leads at 75%; 2.25–2.5 is at 23%.
$117.92 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $8.34K since listing. The order book holds $2.94K, with a 2.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 202 trades, $136.04 bought Yes and $4.35K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Corny-Hyphenation with 3.6K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 5.9K. Ten wallets hold 97.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Apr 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:07 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 72 points, 18 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Aug 2026 | 28.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 1.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 5.9K |
| Corny-Hyphenation | Yes | 3.63K |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 588.31 |
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.0°C and below +2.25°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No". The peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-peak-roni-be-for-the-2026-27-el-nino-1786975502957
| Started-with-20-USD | Yes | 391.66 |
| Hugin-og-Munin | Yes | 270 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 230.54 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 226.33 |
| Hot-SkullHomelessBegger | Yes | 167.9 |
| 843Cc4C8e6dc29A4581126660814B0a6eF6A0734. | Yes | 150 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 51.66 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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