Analytics
Yes is at 4%, down 42 points from 46% when the market opened on 11 Jun 2026.
Across the 139 daily closes on record from 11 Jun 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 46.8% on 12 Oct 2026 and the lowest 2.5% on 20 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 10.9%; a month before, 3%. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 15% on 12 Jun 2026.
75,000-80,000 ranks eighth of the 8 outcomes in “Nikkei 225: Close Price End of 2026”. 70,000-75,000 leads at 23%; 65,000-70,000 is at 19.4%.
$582.98 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $10.23K since listing. The order book holds $1.76K, with a 0.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 174 trades, $245.87 bought Yes and $2.02K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Ivory Summit CA1D with 1K shares; the largest No position is lihpare with 1.1K. Ten wallets hold 94.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 62 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:55 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 139 points, 11 Jun 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jun 2026 | 46.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 4.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| lihpare | No | 1.09K |
| Ivory Summit CA1D | Yes | 1.03K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 441.61 |
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for the Nikkei 225 (NI225) on the final trading day of December 2026, reported in JPY. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nikkei 225 (^N225) "Close" prices available at (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EN225/history/), published under "Historical Data.”
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nikkei-225-close-price-end-of-2026
| Gaujmalietis | No | 401 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 263.81 |
| papakilofoxtrot | Yes | 150.9 |
| thecaricature | Yes | 145.4 |
| pppnn | Yes | 100 |
| lolzzzlol | Yes | 72.01 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 50.1 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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