Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.3%. Yes opened at 4.5% on 24 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 12 daily closes on record from 24 Jul 2026 to 4 Aug 2026, the highest close was 4.5% on 24 Jul 2026 and the lowest 1.2% on 1 Aug 2026. $1.63K traded over the market's life.
21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 24 Jul 2026 – 4 Aug 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 4.5% |
| 4 Aug 2026 | 1.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 4.23K |
| balthazar | Yes | 700 |
| korda77 | Yes | 251.98 |
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-movie-has-3rd-biggest-opening-weekend-in-2026-20260722232204873
| merod | Yes | 207.18 |
| akko123 | Yes | 185 |
| graynotebook19 | Yes | 180 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 135.57 |
| smallreceipt | Yes | 118.4 |
| Crimson Summit 6D33 | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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