Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 50% on 13 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 248 daily closes on record from 13 Dec 2025 to 4 Sep 2026 (18 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 13 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 22 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 33 points down, to 17.5% on 14 Dec 2025. $9.83K traded over the market's life.
37 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 5, 10:16 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 248 points, 13 Dec 2025 – 4 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Dec 2025 | 50.0% |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Crypto-Well | Yes | 3.33K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.58K |
| Snoopyfan | Yes | 734.5 |
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-republican-house-members-not-running-in-2026
| nicoco89 | Yes | 185 |
| xiaoaojiang | Yes | 120 |
| HzPredicts | Yes | 100 |
| UTILIZADOR2 | Yes | 50 |
| 47gds | Yes | 44.8 |
| 27kgfdogodgfg | Yes | 42.46 |
| yiuyoo | Yes | 35 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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