Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 10.5% on 21 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 196 daily closes on record from 21 Dec 2024 to 4 Jul 2025, the highest close was 67% on 4 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 4 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 47.5% on 15 Jan 2025. $152.93K traded over the market's life.
75 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 5, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 196 points, 21 Dec 2024 – 4 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Dec 2024 | 10.5% |
| 4 Jul 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 21.78K |
| NRXO519 | Yes | 1.02K |
| semi | Yes | 729.1 |
This market will resolve based on the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) under the "All Employees, Federal" series (CES9091000001), displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001) This market will resolve to “Yes” if the seasonally adjusted number of federal employees decreases by less than 25,000 between the December 2024 report and the June 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". The difference will be calculated as the December 2024 value minus the June 2025 value. The December 2024 figure will be based on the initial December 2024 BLS Employment Situation report scheduled for release on January 3, 2025, and the initial June 2025 figure will be based on the report scheduled for release on July 3, 2025. Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used. The resolution source will be the BLS Employment Situation data, specifically the series CES9091000001, available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001 or the official BLS website.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/of-jobs-elon-and-doge-cut-in-first-6-months
| gandalf | Yes | 500 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 488 |
| Doglegs | Yes | 311.26 |
| dizzyg | Yes | 269.78 |
| HomeRunDerby | Yes | 222.92 |
| ElbowNuts | Yes | 192.31 |
| destilator | Yes | 184 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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