Analytics
Resolved No on 27 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 85%. Yes opened at 30.5% on 22 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 22 Apr 2026 to 27 Apr 2026, the highest close was 30.5% on 22 Apr 2026 and the lowest 15% on 27 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 16.5% on 24 Apr 2026. $48.91K traded over the market's life.
30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 28, 8:14 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 22 Apr 2026 – 27 Apr 2026, chart shows 10%–35%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2026 | 30.5% |
| 27 Apr 2026 | 15.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Winged-Vet | Yes | 3.43K |
| Mikele | Yes | 2.55K |
| Nietzzzzsche | Yes | 1.38K |
| peculave | Yes | 1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by OpenAI has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If no qualifying score for the specified model is available on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If no qualifying score becomes available by the end of the seventh day following the day of the model’s release, or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If multiple variants of the specified model appear on the Arena.AI Leaderboard at the relevant check time (e.g., base, “Thinking,” or “Instant”), the highest-scoring variant will be used for resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET following the date of the release, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after a qualifying release, it will resolve to "No".
Official listing:
| vanordi | Yes | 1K |
| Warm-Boatload | Yes | 790.64 |
| oak | Yes | 778 |
| renais | Yes | 522.12 |
| mangaloes | Yes | 500 |
| Bsau4 | Yes | 419.87 |
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