
Resolved Yes on 3 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.4%. Yes opened at 75% on 30 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 30 Sep 2026 to 3 Oct 2026, the highest close was 98.4% on 3 Oct 2026 and the lowest 33% on 2 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 65 points up, to 98.4% on 3 Oct 2026. $14.12K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 4, 4:05 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 30 Sep 2026 – 3 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2026 | 75.0% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | 98.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| lamyk | No | 1.23K |
| chessplayer | No | 281.83 |
| dedidanc | No | 201 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT Sol model (6.1+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Sol" and be designated as version 6.1 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 6.1 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Sol or GPT-6 Sol would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-7 Sol or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Sol" or which retain a version designation below 6.1, such as GPT-6 Sol (released September 22, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, GPT-6 Luna, or GPT-6 Astra, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
| No |
| 57.14 |
| zzmdc2 | No | 20 |
| dlo23378 | No | 19.99 |
| Ivory Maven BFF1 | Yes | 10 |
| ...---... | No | 10 |
| bjprolo | No | 10 |
| fj3 | No | 5 |
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