Analytics
Resolved No on 18 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 30 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 30 Jul 2026 to 18 Aug 2026, the highest close was 49.5% on 30 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 14 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 0.4% on 3 Aug 2026. $3.76K traded over the market's life.
25 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 30 Jul 2026 – 18 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | 49.5% |
| 18 Aug 2026 | 0.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 9.78K |
| balthazar | Yes | 6.42K |
| e46m3 | Yes | 266.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-onptptpt-20260729182045875
| Yes |
| 262.06 |
| Ankhgave7 | Yes | 222.22 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| Xyzzzzzzz | Yes | 100 |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 71.06 |
| Practical-Thong | Yes | 64.25 |
| smallreceipt | Yes | 50 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
