Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Jun 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 50% on 11 Apr 2024. Before it settled, across the 67 daily closes on record from 11 Apr 2024 to 16 Jun 2024, the highest close was 50% on 11 Apr 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 11 Jun 2024. Its largest one-day move was 49 points down, to 0.6% on 5 Jun 2024. $29.64K traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 16, 5:44 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 67 points, 11 Apr 2024 – 16 Jun 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Apr 2024 | 50.0% |
| 16 Jun 2024 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.9K |
| hodlb10 | Yes | 1.39K |
| QuantumQuesting | Yes | 170 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes” if the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) wins the 2024 Indian General Election by greater than 20% of the popular vote compared with the second place party. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the NDA and the second-place party. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two parties receives by the sum of all votes cast in the election. Political alliances such as I.N.D.I.A will be considered parties for the purposes of this market. If no 2024 Indian General Election takes place, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based off the party composition of the NDA at the time of the official announcement of the election results, currently scheduled for June 4. Any subsequent changes to the NDA coalition will not be considered for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of India, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/indian-election-nda-margin-of-victory
| Yes |
| 111.11 |
| kjg | Yes | 42.86 |
| kk5-750 | Yes | 11.78 |
| uuuuhj | No | 1.05 |
| undertaker | No | 0.02 |
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