Analytics
Resolved Yes on 2 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.4%. Yes opened at 16.5% on 22 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 283 daily closes on record from 22 Nov 2025 to 2 Oct 2026 (32 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 99.1% on 29 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.8% on 24 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 39.1% on 6 Sep 2026. $6.79K traded over the market's life.
36 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 283 points, 22 Nov 2025 – 2 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Nov 2025 | 16.5% |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 98.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.46K |
| Attached-Prairie | No | 324.99 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | No | 272.75 |
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/min-arctic-sea-ice-extent-this-summer
| Tekno-La.GeeSyS | Yes | 164.49 |
| Threadbare-Conception | Yes | 109.36 |
| Second-Hand-Presume | Yes | 45 |
| Rapid Falcon 3E2E | Yes | 33 |
| PPMT | No | 29.92 |
| haruk098 | Yes | 25 |
| Aggravating-Ketch | No | 16 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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