Will the median home value in the US be between $420,000 and $425,000 by March 1?

Resolved

Yes, settled Mar 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$3.1K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Mar 1, 2026 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 1 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 97.6%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 31 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 30 daily closes on record from 31 Jan 2026 to 1 Mar 2026, the highest close was 97.6% on 1 Mar 2026 and the lowest 7.5% on 4 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 33 points up, to 40% on 5 Feb 2026. $3.05K traded over the market's life.

15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 3, 12:33 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 30 points, 31 Jan 2026 – 1 Mar 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
31 Jan 2026	48.5%
1 Mar 2026	97.6%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	913
KARACAC	No	200
crasus	No	119.8

10 of 15 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on March 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on March 1, 2026. If no data for March 1 is released by March 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/9)