Analytics
Resolved Yes on 14 Mar 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.6%. Yes opened at 36% on 21 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 84 daily closes on record from 21 Dec 2024 to 14 Mar 2025, the highest close was 99.8% on 24 Feb 2025 and the lowest 13.5% on 19 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 48% on 31 Jan 2025. $197.13K traded over the market's life.
45 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 15, 4:35 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 84 points, 21 Dec 2024 – 14 Mar 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Dec 2024 | 36.0% |
| 14 Mar 2025 | 99.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Misty Atlas F3CF | No | 150 |
| gene11 | No | 111.11 |
| nicolay | No | 96.3 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to tale place February 23, 2025. This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Left (Die Linke) makes it into the Bundestag as a parliamentary group (Fraktion) as a result of the 2025 German Parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If voting in the next German parliamentary election does not occur by June 30, 2025, this market will resolve to "No". Under current German parliamentary law, “a parliamentary group [fraktion] can be formed by at least five percent of the members of the Bundestag who belong to the same party” (see: https://www.bundestag.de/services/glossar/glossar/F/fraktionen-444784). This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-left-make-it-into-the-bundestag-as-a-fraktion
| No |
| 77.57 |
| 3440 | No | 51.72 |
| dh2937 | No | 39.06 |
| CarlDeconinck | No | 31.25 |
| Gesichtsrico | No | 24.69 |
| chessnight | No | 16.89 |
| Extra-Large-Restructuring | No | 15.15 |
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