Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 0-5%?

politicsResolved

No, settled Oct 9, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.3K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 9, 2026 UTC

Topic roomWorld elections

Where it stands

Resolved No on 9 Oct 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 83.5%. Yes opened at 17.5% on 15 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 15 Sep 2026 to 9 Oct 2026, the highest close was 26% on 8 Oct 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 18 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 5.5% on 18 Sep 2026. $1.29K traded over the market's life.

11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 10, 6:32 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 15 Sep 2026 – 9 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	781.02
balthazar	Yes	350.7
ImNotBetting	Yes	100.97
.Menthe	Yes	50

10 of 11 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins". If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).