Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 8.5% on 7 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 7 Oct 2025 to 4 Nov 2025, the highest close was 20.5% on 17 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 4 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 20% on 21 Oct 2025. $1.57M traded over the market's life.
573 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 13, 6:15 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 7 Oct 2025 – 4 Nov 2025, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Oct 2025 | 8.5% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.87M |
| Cookedtan | Yes | 263.39K |
| Hagmaxxerz | Yes | 252.74K |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 114.57K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the first day after September 30, 2025 which the U.S. The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is not shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545
| Immense-Predecessor | Yes | 71K |
| Novus0rdoSeclorum | Yes | 30.92K |
| Siziriv | Yes | 27.37K |
| MrUkrainian | Yes | 22.32K |
| Johnson1 | Yes | 16.48K |
| holymamas | Yes | 12K |
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