Analytics
Yes is at 12.5%, down 38 points from 50% when the market opened on 22 May 2026.
Across the 154 daily closes on record from 22 May 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 22 May 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 26 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.5%; a month before, 4.5%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 12% on 24 Jun 2026.
PVEM ranks third of the 6 outcomes in “Mexico Legislative Election: 2nd Place?”. PAN leads at 74.5%; PRI is at 14.1%.
$18 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $13.59K since listing. The order book holds $2.72K, with a 9.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 298 trades, $320.95 bought Yes and $4.11K bought No.
The largest Yes position is catalanpaths with 1.5K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 4K. Ten wallets hold 98.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 7 Jun 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:55 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 154 points, 22 May 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 May 2026 | 50.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 12.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 4.03K |
| catalanpaths | Yes | 1.55K |
| SnapElectionAvoider | Yes | 1.26K |
A legislative election is scheduled to be held in Mexico on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados) as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Mexican Chamber of Deputies. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Mexican Government, specifically the National Electoral Institute (https://ine.mx/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/mexico-legislative-election-2nd-place
| Crimson Scout DF5C | No | 907.19 |
| MiaoAlpha | Yes | 723.46 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 470.61 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 284.84 |
| Basic-World | Yes | 270.13 |
| Yaelczpz | Yes | 145.46 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 110.14 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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