Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 38.5% on 13 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 86 daily closes on record from 13 Nov 2025 to 5 Feb 2026, the highest close was 38.5% on 13 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 5 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 33 points down, to 6% on 14 Nov 2025. $705.07K traded over the market's life.
74 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 6, 4:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 86 points, 13 Nov 2025 – 5 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Nov 2025 | 38.5% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 336.65K |
| Misty Sphinx 45EF | Yes | 200K |
| xukehu | Yes | 65.82K |
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) February 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its February 5, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the February 5, 2026, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-february-2026
| Yes |
| 22.01K |
| snowmann | Yes | 16.28K |
| WillFS | Yes | 15K |
| cryptatar | Yes | 13.83K |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 9.82K |
| Unpleasant-Romance | Yes | 6.65K |
| Impure-Contour | Yes | 6K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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