Analytics
Resolved No on 18 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 1.6% on 31 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 50 daily closes on record from 31 Oct 2025 to 18 Dec 2025, the highest close was 2.1% on 12 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 11 Dec 2025. $878.09K traded over the market's life.
102 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 4, 10:42 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 50 points, 31 Oct 2025 – 18 Dec 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2025 | 1.6% |
| 18 Dec 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 88.64K |
| ggggdd | Yes | 10.29K |
| flow-trader-at-optiver | Yes | 9.97K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) December 2025 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its December 18, 2025 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the December 18, 2025, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-december-2025
| Yes |
| 4.96K |
| abseil.beech | Yes | 4.77K |
| monkeeey | Yes | 4.2K |
| pass.bison | Yes | 3.9K |
| Productive-Merchandise | Yes | 3.1K |
| Laudrup | Yes | 3K |
| hhhuy | Yes | 2.67K |
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