Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September meeting?

Resolved

No, settled Sep 11, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$371.5K

Resolved

Settled

Sep 11, 2025 UTC

Topic roomECB interest rates

Where it stands

Resolved No on 11 Sep 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.1%. Yes opened at 20% on 25 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 49 daily closes on record from 25 Jul 2025 to 11 Sep 2025, the highest close was 20% on 25 Jul 2025 and the lowest 1.6% on 23 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 7.5% on 26 Jul 2025. $371.45K traded over the market's life.

111 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Sep 12, 4:36 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 49 points, 25 Jul 2025 – 11 Sep 2025, chart shows 0%–25%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
25 Jul 2025	20.0%
11 Sep 2025	1.9%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	222.5K
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	7.2K
mikka101	Yes	6.98K

10 of 111 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) September 2025 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its September 11, 2025 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the September 11, 2025 meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by October 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.