Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.1%. Yes opened at 32% on 21 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 71 daily closes on record from 21 Aug 2025 to 30 Oct 2025, the highest close was 32% on 21 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.9% on 30 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 9.5% on 22 Aug 2025. $219.46K traded over the market's life.
84 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 31, 4:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 71 points, 21 Aug 2025 – 30 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2025 | 32.0% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 109.54K |
| ggggdd | Yes | 22.81K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 4.3K |
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) October 2025 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its October 30, 2025 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the October 30, 2025 meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by December 16, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ecb-interest-rates-october-2025
| Yes |
| 2.5K |
| LastTelos | Yes | 1.48K |
| logicryan | Yes | 1.43K |
| CH7000 | Yes | 1.33K |
| MisterFlow | Yes | 1.23K |
| Dede2024 | Yes | 1.11K |
| olliewinter | Yes | 1.1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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