Analytics
Yes is at 3.5%, down 39 points from 43% when the market opened on 8 Jan 2026.
The high was 43% on 8 Jan 2026 and the low 1.6% on 8 Mar 2026. A week ago Yes was at 2.4%; a month ago, 5%. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 9.5% on 9 Jan 2026.
December 31, 2026 ranks third of the 3 outcomes in “Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?”. December 31, 2027 leads at 69.5%; June 30, 2027 is at 31.5%.
$27.12K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.05M since listing. The order book holds $49.16K, with a 1.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $3.85K bought Yes and $12.93K bought No; the largest was a $16K sell of No at 94.1¢.
The largest Yes position is Nooserac with 51.7K shares; the largest No position is BABELCONSTEL with 179.6K. Ten wallets hold 88.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 86 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 8, 2:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 247 points · 8 Jan 2026 – 8 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Jan 2026 | 43.0% |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 3.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BABELCONSTEL | No | 179.6K |
| Nooserac | Yes | 51.72K |
| tradetard | Yes | 17.84K |
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-before-2027
| Practical-Divider |
| Yes |
| 15.96K |
| obiwansatoshi | Yes | 15.03K |
| UptoNoob | Yes | 13.05K |
| QXOG | Yes | 11.82K |
| luckydees | Yes | 8.14K |
| ebaka52 | Yes | 6.01K |
| pukis | Yes | 5.82K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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