Analytics
Yes is at 47%, down 1 point from 48% when the market opened on 28 Oct 2026.
Across the 4 daily closes on record from 28 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026, the highest close was 48% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 28% on 29 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 28% on 29 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “2028 Presidential Election: Arizona Winner”.
$481.9 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $176.92, with a 54.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is PollyEmperor with 85 shares; the largest No position is xtxpleasecallme with 242.
Trading closes on 8 Nov 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 6:31 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 28 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | 48.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 47.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 241.9 |
| PollyEmperor | Yes | 85 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 63 |
The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in Arizona in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide Arizona results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/2028-presidential-election-arizona-winner
| SmartBoyBilly |
| Yes |
| 36.95 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 20 |
| uprun | Yes | 20 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 16.95 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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