Analytics
Yes is at 90.5%, up 41 points from 50% when the market opened on 17 Dec 2025.
Across the 303 daily closes on record from 17 Dec 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (14 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 90.5% on 24 Oct 2026 and the lowest 41.5% on 9 Feb 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 88.5%; a month before, 81.5%. Its largest one-day move was 33 points down, to 50% on 11 Apr 2026.
Elaine Luria (D) is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “VA-02 House Election Winner”, ahead of Jen Kiggans (R) at 9%.
$25.29K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $117.69K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 201 trades, $4.42K bought Yes and $1.98K bought No; the largest was a $1.76K sell of Yes at 87.0¢.
The largest Yes position is tunatyler with 2K shares; the largest No position is Hyperlong with 3.1K. Ten wallets hold 89.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 9:18 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 303 points, 17 Dec 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Dec 2025 | 50.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 90.5% |
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/va-02-house-election-winner
| Prickly-Eyrie |
| Yes |
| 693.48 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 603.52 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 475.76 |
| cowcat | No | 352.94 |
| ocpna | Yes | 329.27 |
| anoin123 | No | 231.69 |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Yes | 200 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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