Analytics
Yes is at 15.5%, down 14 points from 29.5% when the market opened on 20 Feb 2026.
Across the 223 daily closes on record from 20 Feb 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (31 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 34.5% on 28 Feb 2026 and the lowest 8% on 16 May 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 19.5%; a month before, 17%. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 34.5% on 28 Feb 2026.
Democrats 6-8% ranks third of the 13 outcomes in “2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory”. Democrats 8-10% leads at 26%; Democrats 10-12% is at 22.5%.
$255.24 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $18.78K since listing. The order book holds $44.98K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.12K bought Yes and $2.9K bought No.
The largest Yes position is FrozenParasite with 1.1K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 5.1K. Ten wallets hold 85.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:27 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 223 points, 20 Feb 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Feb 2026 | 29.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 15.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 5.09K |
| FrozenParasite | Yes | 1.15K |
| andy29 | Yes | 875 |
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/2026-midterms-house-popular-vote-margin-of-victory-224
1 more outcome, none above 0.9%.
| GayPride |
| No |
| 800.22 |
| JohnP92 | Yes | 676.33 |
| ScottyNooo | Yes | 530.12 |
| SitsToPee | Yes | 521.18 |
| cowcat | Yes | 494.81 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 290.35 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 230.51 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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