Analytics
Yes is at 97.5%, up 26 points from 71% when the market opened on 29 Jan 2026.
The high was 98% on 29 Sep 2026 and the low 49% on 31 Jan 2026. A week ago Yes was at 96%; a month ago, 94.5%. Its largest one-day move was 33 points up, to 82% on 1 Feb 2026.
Brad Sherman (D) is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “CA-32 House Election Winner”, ahead of Larry Thompson (R) at 1.8%.
$13.04K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $14.99K, with a 0.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 81 trades, $5.46K bought Yes and $209.87 bought No; the largest was a $1.91K buy of Yes at 92.0¢.
The largest Yes position is cowcat with 2.1K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 2.8K. Ten wallets hold 94.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 20 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 15, 6:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 238 points, 29 Jan 2026 – 15 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2026 | 71.0% |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 97.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.8K |
| cowcat | Yes | 2.07K |
| HolyMoses7VerifiedVerified Polymarket profile |
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ca-32-house-election-winner
| Yes |
| 545 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 300 |
| Dr.PNL | No | 274.76 |
| i2dt | Yes | 202.86 |
| immanuelcan | Yes | 110 |
| asdadada123 | Yes | 90 |
| donthackme | No | 80 |
| AJSV | No | 71 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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