Analytics
Yes is at 1.3%, down 16 points from 17% when the market opened on 28 Jan 2026.
Across the 263 daily closes on record from 28 Jan 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (12 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 43.5% on 2 Feb 2026 and the lowest 1.3% on 20 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.5%; a month before, 3.8%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 27% on 3 Feb 2026.
Democratic Party ranks third of the 4 outcomes in “AK-AL House Election Winner”. Republican Party leads at 76.5%; Bill Hill is at 22.7%.
$43.71 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $36.68K since listing. The order book holds $34.11K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.25K bought Yes and $10.75K bought No; the largest was a $1.86K sell of No at 83.3¢.
The largest Yes position is SitsToPee with 2.5K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 2.2K. Ten wallets hold 78.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 1:12 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 263 points, 28 Jan 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Jan 2026 | 17.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 1.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SitsToPee | Yes | 2.48K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.24K |
| oliman2 | No | 1.94K |
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources, except if that candidate is a listed option. Candidates who are listed options will not be considered to represent any party for purposes of this market, regardless of any subsequent caucus decision. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ak-al-house-election-winner
| oneoftheppl |
| No |
| 1.15K |
| Odd-Relish | Yes | 999.58 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | No | 912.8 |
| 74-75 | Yes | 876.2 |
| rhinogiraffe | Yes | 726 |
| BobbyBakedBeans | No | 672 |
| anoin123 | Yes | 624.71 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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