
Yes is at 93%, up 5 points from 88% when the market opened on 11 Sep 2026.
Across the 46 daily closes on record from 11 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 94% on 23 Oct 2026 and the lowest 56.5% on 19 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 94%; a month before, 85%. Its largest one-day move was 33 points down, to 56.5% on 19 Sep 2026.
Democratic Party is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “Which party will win the Maine State Senate in 2026?”, ahead of Republican Party at 6.6%.
$3.25K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $21K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 92 trades, $1.41K bought Yes and $34.2 bought No.
The largest Yes position is sweetj with 461 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 580. Ten wallets hold 89.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 46 points, 11 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Sep 2026 | 88.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 93.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 580.45 |
| sweetj | Yes | 460.66 |
| 0x49F206 | Yes | 218.57 |
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the Maine State Senate in the 2026 Maine midterm election. A party wins control of the Maine Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President of the State Senate that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. If no President of the State Senate is chosen by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the following State Senate and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of the Chamber, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the Chamber who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the Maine State Senate, and a consensus of credible reporting.
| DuneMentat |
| Yes |
| 160 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 135.68 |
| sunnynotbunny | Yes | 121 |
| cigarettes | No | 120 |
| youtube-trader | No | 71 |
| Numitus1994 | No | 65.54 |
| Beautiful-Bead | Yes | 45.8 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-maine-state-senate-in-2026
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